Real Estate Bergen County New Jersey | Homes For Sale

Crude oil hits target!

On July 10, 2008 a Sunday night, I said to short Crude Oil at the open on Monday morning, the 11th, with an ultimate target of $75.00 in six months.  Oil Opened at 147.10 and dropped from there. It is just a few days past 3 months and Crude Oil hit $74.975 this morning.  We are now flat, resting waiting for another opportunity. When I decided this the market was in great fear of Crude oil going higher and gas going to $5.00 per gallon.

Contrary thinking at pivotal wave structure, set the view of market psychology I had.

We are now flat all markets.

Hopefully this will help real estate in the long run, lower oil will help the economy and ultimately real estate.

Richard

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We seen the whites of their eyes and have executed a great trade!

10/9/2008 P.M., I said to buy in the SP stock index futures Dec., in the A.M. at the market (870.00) at 850.00 and at 800.00, breaking your money into 3 parts.

We got 870 1 part and 850 one part. I said last night 10/12/2008 to sell one part at 950.00 and again the last part at 975.00 today.

I also said on Thursday night we would see the biggest one day rally in history. We had that today on this trade!

About 150% on margin on one trade for just over 1 trading day in the market.

If you make 10-15% per year :)

I hope some of you subscribers got in.

I can't do better than that.

Tell your family, tell your friends to follow. Why go it alone.

We are now net flat, and the market is still going up!

We will rest and play another day.

Real estate will benefit, it is coming, the risk spread will shrink, confidence will return.

Let's get busy!

Richard

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In Friday's market action.

Crude Oil drop within $2.00 of our long term target of $75.00. We want to cover shorts at $75.00. I don't want to miss this over a couple of dollars so we will watch it close.

The Stock index futures SP Dec., we bought the open at $870.50 on 1/3 of our position and again we bought $850.00 for 1/3 of our position. Our $800.00 buy when untouched and our $950.00 stop went untouched.

So average of $860.25 we are long 2/3 of our position. We will cancel our orders unfilled orders and trade this position.  It is trading tonight(Sunday) in the 920's well over 60 points to the good.

I am looking to sell the first 1/3 at $950.00 and the second 1/3 at 975.00.

I think there maybe one more pull back possibly out there and I want to trade this.

I hope we get out before the retest.

I think that the Libor spead wil start narrowing, when it does real estate will pick up.

It was General (Doctor) Warren, of Lexington, MA. He also died in the Battle of Bunker Hill.  http://www.britishbattles.com/bunker-hill.htm

Richard

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"Do not shoot till you see the whites of their eyes!"

It was General (Doctor) Warren, of Lexington, MA. He also died in the Battle of Bunker Hill.  http://www.britishbattles.com/bunker-hill.htm

Well, their eyes are getting closer.

If you recall we sold Crude oil back in July at the high tick of $147.10, my forecast was for a low within 6 months at $75.00 target.  Oil hit 84.15 today and the whites are getting closer.

This was one of my best calls of the year and probably one I will remember forever.

For people who have been short, they should look to cover. Enter day and night orders at $75.00.

As for the stock index futures markets, If you have followed along, we have been pushing shorts for over 2 months. I am finally seeing the whites of the SP futures eyes also. Here is how I think it should be played. Divide your buying power into 3 parts.

Buy now at current levels of 909 or better, Dec future 1/3 of your investment at market open tomorrow morning.

Buy 1/3 again at 850 Dec Future

Buy 1/3 again at 800 Dec Future

The volatility is that high that the spreads are that wide.

If we rally to 950 buy 1/3 Dec Futures on stop and delete lowest price order that is left.

I will keep this entry format open daily if needed on this blog.

When the fed gets the money worked out, the Libor rates will flatten and the market will have the biggest one day rally ever!

 This will bring in more confidence for real estate and lower mortgage rates.

Happy trading!

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It has been reported on CNBC that the federal government, for $85 billion has bought a 80% position in AIG.  That makes every take payer an owner of AIG shares.

If AIG is savable the Fed has made good deal. I think they started with $800 billion dollars before Fannie and Freddie. So they are down to $320 billion.

It is all to avert the domino affect of this crisis.

Maybe, it will be a good investment. So walk proud, you own a piece of a blue chip (once anyway) company.

Let us hope Uncle Sam has a good investment adviser.

I said in my blog this morning, the government would not let AIG fail, they are too big and they must stop the run on these companies.

Would you like to buy, sell or hold your shares?

Richard

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oh, buy the way oil made it to .55 cents short of yesterday's $90.00 target to cover shorts on short term basis.