Real Estate Bergen County New Jersey | Homes For Sale

I am not sure after hearing all the explanation about Thursday's stock market plunge. No one has come forward and admitted to the bad trade of 16 Billion instead of 16 Million theory. I don't think we needed one bad trade to do this. It seams that the NYSE circuit breakers slow down a fast selling market. However the computer system jumps to the Nasdaq to fill the trades. The Nasdaq being a secondary market in these stocks had very little liquidity and no circuit breakers. The market was trading very heavy in a strong declining wave, which was being blamed on Greece's financial crisis. I think this was another wake up call for all the computer sophistication that has not been fully worked out.

What does this mean? It means other then the fact that the exchanges must resolve their reciprocity, the markets themselves are turning down. Excuses or blame won't change the market direction.

With the Real Estate markets doing better lets hope that it doesn't get interfered with.

Real Estate Markets: It seems that all the speculative areas are hot and selling strong, foreclosures, reo's and the like. Southern California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida among other areas, are setting home sales records. The areas that were less speculative in the boom are making a lazy bottom. However, property is selling in Bergen County New Jersey again. There are deals being made. It is too soon to tell how many but I think it will be significantly higher than last year in volume. Yes, prices are lower, about 20% from the highs. However, the speculative areas are off about 60% off their highs.

It better to be a little slower, than to have lost so much in price. The market is finding its legs. With all the mortgage money coming in, it is getting easier. We are seeing a lot of activity, lets hope it keeps up!

Last up date we said.

We will look to buy the SPM09 or ESM09 as follows; unit one at 770, unit 2 at 745 unit three we will reserve for now.

We missed this buy, the market pulled back to the low 770's and we were not filled and are flat.

We will look to sell short the June ESM09 at 850 and a second unit at 870.

We said last;

We were short from $51.00 and covered at $49.00 for a $2.00 profit..

WE will buy the June QMM09 or CLM09 at $46.00 and a second unit at $44.00

Last update we said.

Currently:  30 year Treasury Bond USM09

We were short one unit from 129, we covered at 126 16/32. for a 2.5 point profit.

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Richard

Last up date we said

Well, we hoped we got a bottom and a sharp rally. Now we are ready to start selling, we own 3 SPH09 or ESH09 we will sell all 3 at 755. We will revisit this, when this trade is done.

Currently:

We have been flat, I didn't go back in and got out early, I was concerned about one more pull back. Unfortunately, I been on a project and had not posted another update.

We will look to buy the SPM09 or ESM09 as follows; unit one at 770, unit 2 at 745 unit three we will reserve for now.

We said last;

Crude Oil, we are flat, we will look to sell short the May crude CLK09 or QMK09 mini at $51.00, one unit.

Currently:

We are short from $51.00, we will put an order to cover at $49.00.

Last update we said.

So we are flat the treasuries. We will look to sell short 129 June USM09 one unit.

Currently:

We are short one unit from 129, we will cover at 126 16/32.

We could have covered at 127, but I missed posting. I am going to try to post daily a simple format in the future and a more involved weekly or as necessary.

Real Estate Markets, A week ago Sunday, I made the front page of the Record, Northern New Jersey's newspaper, in an interview on the real estate market. After describing the perfect storm, I feel we hit a bottom or it is happening as we speak. Bergen County Real Estate didn't loose so much as other areas, so the roll is a little less blaring.

I see homes being sold, yes there are short sales and foreclosures, but they are working through. Rates are low and money is coming in. I also heard that Bank of America is offering a jumbo up to $3,000,000 in the high 5% range. This is great for Bergen County high priced home sales.

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Richard

The Record, our North Jersey News paper quoted myself and other brokers on market conditions. There front page story, REAL ESTATE SUFFERS WORST YEAR IN DECADES- Where's the bottom? printed Sunday March 22, 2008. The article can be seen in it's entirety electronically at Where's the bottom?

To go further, I think we are bottoming now. Many parts of the country are experiencing higher volume. Bergen County is also picking up. The market will eventually not be anything it seem it would be. That is the way it works!

 Search Real Estate in Bergen County New Jersey

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 Richard

Last up date we said

"The 5th wave is ending, and there is a bottom at hand. We are now long 3 units of SPH09 or ESH09.There could be some more wash out, and then I figure a quick sharp rally. Never the less we are long!"

Well we hoped  we got a bottom and a sharp rally. Now we are ready to start selling, we own 3 SPH09 or ESH09 we will sell all 3 at 755. We will revisit this, when this trade is done.

Crude Oil, we are flat, we will look to sell short the May crude CLK09 or QMK09 mini at $51.00, one unit.

Last update we said.

We will pull our order for 123 buy.

So we are flat the treasuries. We will look to sell short 129 June USM09 one unit.

Real Estate Markets, I was interviewed and quoted on Inman News last week and it was released yesterday. Here is the link, Economic bust plays on emotions . One top agent in my office Antoinette Gangi has been all over the press, I have been working with her to sell new homes and land. She is doing great. In the past two weeks she got front page of The Record, our Bergen County regional news paper on downsizing new homes. She than got the local paper article Community Life and 1010 wins news radio in NYC, interview aired all morning today. We are turning this market as hard as we can. Let's look up and see the sun.

In Bergen County Real Estate New Jersey, we are ready for a buy spurt, I think it is starting. Positive action seems to be happening. We have moved more to a 60% arip to new listings from the less than 40% that I seen for a long time. Technically speaking, I think we are going to sell some houses this spring. My office is now building a pipe line of sales. We have been doing open houses every week and it is catching. You can't sit home and expect it to happen on its own.

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Richard

The 5th wave is ending, and there is a bottom at hand.

March crude Oil, we are flat.

Last update we said

SPH09 or ESH09 stock index futures.  We missed our short sale. Oh well, I am looking to start buying. We will use a 3 unit strategy. We will buy 1 unit at $775 now, a second unit at $735 and a third unit at $700. I am putting these all out there in case I miss a blog.

We are now long 3 units of SPH09 or ESH09.There could be some more wash out, and then I fiquire a quick sharp rally. Never the less we are long!

Last update we said.

We bought 125 16/32 one unit we are long the 30 year treasury. I didn't blog us out it rallied big time to 130 12.5. Never the less we will put an order to sell at 128 even.

We sold at 128 even  for a 2 and 1/2 point profit on the contract.

We will pull our order for 123 buy.

Real Estate Markets, In the past week there has been some good news, we have Jumbos again. Not at historic spreads but much better for up to $4million. last week we were quoted 6.5%- 0 points for 30 year fixed. This is a good sign.

In Bergen County Real Estate New Jersey, the market is selling if you priced really right and the numbers are still below sellers expectations. If the numbers are right it homes sell! As home sellers capitulate or the short sale gets worked the inventory is moved. What I fear is the Obama plans to tax refund people who will not stimulate the economy and raise taxes on people $208,000 approx. and over who would. This is going to cause the the treasuries to back up and affect mortgage rates. Since this started the 10 year was at 2% and now moved to 3% in just a few weeks. The action to spend without incentives to the private sector and just do give aways is crazy! I know Obama campaigned the last couple of weeks to do this, but the markets hoped he would not try to overlay it on the stimulus bills to save the system. I thought it was Pelosi, only it wasn't. President Obama has now, in his first weeks, tried to squeeze the system with Pelosi. If his gamble fails we all loose. He is not doing what the economist want him to do, but what he wants to do. Doesn't this sound like what people said about President Bush?

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Richard

Things are evolving!

Last update we said

March crude Oil, we had bought one CLH09 future at $39 and one at $37.00 we closed out at today's contract close at $39.45 for an average profit of 1.45 per contract. Not a big gain, we missed the bigger gain my target was a bit high but a gain, never the less. It about $2900.00 on about $16000 margin, about 18%.

We are flat now and await other ideas.

SPH09 or ESH09 stock index futures.  We missed our short sale. Oh well, I am looking to start buying. We will use a 3 unit strategy. We will buy 1 unit at $775 now, a second unit at $735 and a third unit at $700. I am putting these all out there incase I miss a blog.

If this is still the 4^th wave will bounce now. If we are in the 5^th down we will take out the lows at $738.50. Unfortunately, I am not sure that I would get to blog it fast enough to catch the different of the two waves. This strategy takes it into account.

This is an important time. Let us understand all the good news of the government actions is out and the market is very heavy. That smells of a decline and a new low. If we don't rally tomorrow, which Friday turn around rallies are tough to find. We should drop hard to our 5^th wave low. I am buying tomorrow as you see because I can not be that nimble here. The next few days will tell.

Last update we said.

Treasury 10 Year Notes. We are flat. I am shifting my attention to the 30 year treasury. USH09 march future. We will buy one unit at 125 16/32nds order to buy a second at 123.00

We bought 125 16/32 one unit we are long the 30 year treasury. I didn't blog us out it rallied big time to 130 12.5. Never the less we will put an order to sell at 128 even.

Real Estate Markets, the markets want to get going, as soon as the uncertainty of all this new legislation is out and cleared up, we will start moving nicely. I have been reading though real estate blogs all over the country and Canada and Europe. I have found some simple realities. Markets which over built and have dropped hard, such as So Cal., Nevada, Arizona, Florida have been picking up nicely in volume. This is important. It means at the right price real estate is in demand. The areas that were up well, but not extremely over built, are modestly lower in price and off in volume. The areas that did not go up much at all, are basically off just a little and that is of late only.  These later two areas need a fire under them or more time or more lower prices to get going. I think the government set the fire lets see if that will do it and if more time and price are not needed. There is actural a fouth type which was rare, it never went down and was still going up slightly, mostly on less volume.

In Bergen County New Jersey, we are in the second group. We went up in price maybe from 2001 to 2006 about 60-100%. Bergen is basically a fully developed area, small little sub divisions and knock downs for supply.  Compared to Florida areas, that tripled while having heavy supply. Think what that means, extreme high in price with extreme supply. In the stock market that would be distribution. Bergen needs the fire under it the government has been doing or a little more price and time. I think we are ready, if they have the mortgages they will come. I will talk more technically about these market assessments in my next blog. It will give a greater perspective to what to expect.

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Richard

Last update we said

March crude Oil, we missed our buy at $39.00 by .10. We wait till the next calling.

Well we got them at 39.00 last week and they to $42.65 and are back in the mid 39's. We will sell them at $43.50 . We will also put in a order to buy a second unit of march futures at $37.00 CLH09.

SPH09 or ESH09 stock index futures.  We are flat.  Although we might have finish the upward corrective wave already, I will take a conservative stance and sell short the first unit of ESH09 at 885.00. This the March E-mini future and a second order on unit 2 for 900 even.

Treasury 10 Year Notes,  We are flat. I am shifting my attention to the 30 year treasury. USH09 march future. We will buy one unit at 125 16/32nds.  order to buy a second at 123.00

Real Estate Markets,  I feel the market wants to go. The leaks of the proposals for special mortgage products for home buyers has hurt the market short term. Many buyers are waiting to see what it is, especially the first time buyers. I think the money coming into the market from the government for mortgage bonds and agency paper is starting to be felt. It should be understood, it is just the tip of the iceberg so far. The TALF -Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility is getting under way. Bloomberg story will fill in the bulk of it, but simply it is to get the securitising going again and get money into loans.

As these programs hit we should feel them in a energy from the mortgage community, with programs and expanded credit qualifications.

President Obama is focusing in on real estate. He feels we must get support for the market. It is a priority of his administration.

In Bergen County New Jersey:   There seems to be a level of capitulation going on. Homes will sell with all these programs making buyers able to fund their purchases.

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Richard

March crude Oil, we missed our buy at $39.00 by .10. We wait till the next calling.

SPH09 stock index future.  We were long from 800 and 835. 

We sold our 2 units of SPH09 or ESH09 the mini's at 860 today. I had orginally had the orders at 1 at 860 and 1 at 880 but changed them on the last update to both at 860. I got spooked ti wait on the 880, well see if I was right or wrong.  Never the less it was a 25 point and 60 point gain! Nice!

Treasury 10 Year Notes,  We are now flat.

I am a little in flux for a bit. I have been hot for 7 months and have not broken a trade since. I must do some accessing before I get aggressive again. Volatility has been fading so let's be happy of our gains and look to see what the next big moves will be.

Real Estate Markets,  I think a volume turn around is underway. Homes sale have been picking up. Lower prices and lower mortgage rates are making houses much more affordable, If you have a job.

In Bergen County New Jersey:   I am seeing the same signs that i have seen after the 80-90's market correction.  Homes are getting bids, prices are taking drops into the arms of buyers.

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Richard

March crude Oil, we missed our buy at $39.00 by .10. We wait till the next calling.

SPH09 stock index future.  We are still long from 800 and 835, current market is in the low 840's. 

We will sell both at $860 .

Treasury 10 Year Notes, In the last update, we were short one TYH09 at 126'15, for now let's put an order to cover at 124 even. We covered our short at 124.  This was a 2 1/2 point trade or 100% profit on minimum margin requirement. Not bad! We are now flat.

Real Estate Markets,  I been talking about a turn around in home sales, with the money flow to mortgages by the Fed. Well, on the West Coast, December home sales have pick up nicely. Enough to lift sales over 6% nationally, even though the rest of the country was off. The West Coast had the biggest price declines from the highs. This has brought out buyers. I also hear the mortgages are starting to work.

Here we go, real estate is going to have a volume year. Lower prices and newly plentiful mortgage money is going to get the pent up demand for homes sizzling. I have been talking this talk, now we are walking the walk. The market is buzzing a bit.

In Bergen County New Jersey:  This is something I have seen before, lower prices and short sales in our market has caused sudden gaps down here and there. This is what a bottom is made of in real estate prices. I have seen the capitulated sellers act like this before. In the early 90's it looked the same after the Savings and Loan crisis.

Happy Selling!

Richard

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