We are long one unit February Crude at $42.00 and one at $40.00, we will sell both units at $42.50, I had raised this sell from 42.00 to 42.50 it rallied to 42.18 and reversed. I should not of changed the order and we would be awaiting the next buy. So be it, we will wait for the $42.50 for now.

SPH09 stock index future. We were filled on the $860.00 and missed the $850.00. we will remove buy order for the $850.00 and put in a sell order to close our long position at $910.00

Interest rates, we are waiting an entry to go short. I think we are in the late stages of this decline in yield. We will address it soon.

Real Estate Markets, I must say our owe experiences should be our best barometer. I have been selling new homes. I must say even pre-construction. It is all about price, value and quality. Do good marketing and have what people want. Basic business! Overpriced and poor value will go no where, but people who need a home recognize value. I not saying that there are good margins. It is just adjusting to a changing business in this real estate market.

Banks continue to be the key to real estate and economic health. They must lend, and need the mechanism from the Fed, to put money directly into new mortgages. I don't want to bore you with this but they must buy fresh agency paper, applying to new mortgagesgranted. I will continue to write this until it the funding rolls out right.  Real estate needs money, lots of money, but to qualified, equity rich buyers, both occupying and investing. 

Richard

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I commented on Paul Henderson's blog Paul Henderson (RE/MAX Professionals), the other day and Paul thought this was a great answer.

Banking Bailout

"The banking bailout was a basic handout, it doesn't direct the money to help the general welfare. The banks are using it for their own purposes and could give a care about everything else. They kind of said, I am on the ledge and holding your baby, if I don't get money I will jump.  Sometimes we feel we should have grabbed the baby and pushed."

It was basic blackmail, give us money or we are all doomed! I am getting tired of thinking and writing about this dilemma. Unfortunately we need too. We need the money from now on to go to where it will be given to borrowers for mortgages, car loans, business loans.

If there is money they will come. We can sell lots of real estate and solve the banks problems for them even better, if the mortgages that are in trouble get paid off.

Richard

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Things are getting ready to happen in many markets.

We are long one unit February Crude at $42.00 and one at $40.00, we will sell both units at $42.50, most people believe crude is going a lot lower here. We are long and will exit on a small profit. I am looking to buy it back again soon after this sale.

SPH09 stock index future we are flat and missed the buy at 810, we will now put an order to buy one unit at 860 and one unit at 850.

Interest rates, we are waiting an entry to go short.

Real Estate,  my long time, over 25 year Guru, Robert Prechter who is the author of Elliott Wave Theorist a Publication of Elliott Wave International, has noted that consumer confidence has hit a low for last 50 years or so.  Even in the 1930 that produced a decent bounce in real estate and the stock market for a while. He also notes, as I have been saying, that people are intentionally not paying their mortgages so they can renegotiate. This is not good.

If everyone thinks things are going to be bad, it usually will improve.

As always banks need to lend, the system should start feeling the money next month. Real estate will pick up with the money flow.

Richard

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​​​​Woodcliff Lake Reservoir in Northern Bergen County New Jersey. The Train Station Clock, the North Causeway and the Lake. The lake is bordered by Hillsdale, Park Ridge and Woodcliff Lake. See more video's of the lake at ​​​​​Woodcliff Lake Places.
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All Nature's beauty, with many faces.

Richard

View My ​​​​​​​new homes for sale​
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View Woodcliff Lake's ​​​​​​​Glen Estates
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View other ​​​​​​​new homes in Woodcliff lake
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We are long one unit January Crude at $38.00 and $34.50, we will sell these units January crude at 36.00 and roll to Feburary contract and buy $42.00. We will put an order to buy a second unit Feburary at $40.00. I acturally bought the January crude to close to expiration yesterday.

Still nothing on SPH09 stock index future right now, we missed our buy down at 810 by 2 points, we will have patients and do something later.

Interest rates, still no reason why it can't go lower and as of yet, except it is getting so low.

Real Estate, I sent my thoughts to Jim Cramer earlier this week and the next day he said to buy real estate. So you know what I am thinking, hundreds of billion dollars going into the markets, sooner or later it will get to home buying. That is the question, when does it hit the buyers and how do we get it to Jumbos and Investors?

Richard

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​​​​Our family has a tradition of Christmas decorating, my wife Lisa, spends weeks decorating the house for Christmas. I thought I would share a video I took, while she was setting up. The decorating starts the weekend after Thanksgiving and acturally goes on right up to Christmas Eve. It really gives our family, children, relatives, friends, my wife and myself a very warm experience. Another Holiday tradition we have is going into New York to the Tavern on the Green "Crystal room" in Central Park for dinner, horse carriage rides, if it is not too cold. Then to Rockerfeller Center to the Tree, Ice Rink. We usually finish at Saint Patrick Catheral. We also go to Time Square on the way, because it is just amazing. I will share that trip with you soon as well. How do you celebrate the Holidays?
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Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy, Prosperous New Year to All.

Richard

View My ​​​​​​​new homes for sale​
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I added to comments on our last signal that I was looking to buy at $39.00 January 09. I didn't get to write last night so today we are buying $38.00 January future today.

Nothing on SPH09 right now, we missed our buy down at 810 by 2 points, we will have patients and do something later.

I hate when I miss a big move by a few points (over 100 points), but that's the game. I can't jump on and off and change my orders on a blog like this, it would get everyone crazy.

Let's look at the interest rates, I am looking for a reason why it can't go lower and as of yet, I haven't found it. I am going to look at the charts tonight and see if there is clues.

Real Estate, I don' t want to get boring here, but I think we are ready for some volume. Again the only thing holding us back is mortgage money flowing. I think the agency paper as I have said, will help that along. There are plenty of well priced houses out there to be bought.

Investors will play a roll here, they can't get commercial money for other projects, maybe if the Fed ok's a program through the agencys for investors, they will shift to residential speculation and buy to rent homes.

Everything I have been saying has been happening so maybe this too can happen.

Richard

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The Federal Reserve lowering the Funds rate helps everyone. It lowers many home equity loans and business loans which look at the funds rate to set their index rate. It should also lower home mortgage rates although since the crisis started the yield risk spread, availability and willingness to lend effects the rates too.  

Interest rates are coming down. Mortgage rates are coming down for real estate, finally. The Fed buying agency paper from Fannie and Freddie to provide funds to loan for mortgages. Sooner or later it will stick. It takes a bit of time to turn the Queen Mary and that is what they are doing.

However, one thing I learned about monetary policy is that when it is altered, it take a certain level of critical mass and time and then suddenly it will take affect.

It will happen!   The actions of investors entering the market a speculate along with low rates and finally available funds will pull this real estate market together. Yes I believe investors will start to buy up properties and turn them into rental for speculation, when the money flows.

Homes will sell, new homes will sell, real estate in general will sell. It's all about money!

Richard

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P.S. Cars will sell too!

Rental Shortage needs to be tapped!

The real estate market is inside out in many parts of the country. People are leaving their foreclosed homes and need a place to live. Rental rates are raising due to demand. The Treasury and Federal Reserve must set up a Fannie and Freddie package for investors with down payments. This will allow people to use their credit and down payment money to buy these foreclosed homes, get them off the market and make property available to qualified renters.

The credit worthy buyers are not the foreclosed persons. They can only rent now. You need a credit worthy buyer with capital to take the inventory. This will provide rental housing, which is needed and help solve our over all problem.

To understand the problem, it is dynamic, as it goes through different stages, the needs and solution change. The combination of this type of program, with the same 4.5% loans from government back sources and the 4.5% program for user buyers, will stem the drop in prices and turn this around.

There is still a problem for qualified user buyers to get loans. Along with declining appraisals. This will not stop until enough of the properly applied resources are brought to bare. Fannie and Freddie must be allowed to be this conduit to get this done.

New home sales are down and rightfully so while the weakness in the markets continue. Many jobs are lost and unemployment is rising. As soon as this get done people can go back to work. The buyers of these homes will do fix ups and help the economy. Remember the most important thing to capitalism is capital. The capital must be applied, no differently then how troops are strategically placed in a battle field.

Let's get this battle over and go on to a peaceful time.

Richard

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Our January Crude long position at $42.00 was sold at $47.50 last week . Close to top tick. That was about a 55% profit on margin in a few days. (I'm polishing an apple). I must check our trqade record for crude since I started blogging it, I think we are up about 5500% on contract margin. I wonder who is even close to this?

Our SPZ08 has not hit, we put it in at $810 for the first unit and other units under that. It missed at about $813.00, and again in the high teens. We will move the order $850.00 and the orders for the other units below at $800 and $750. Remember the SPH09 corresponds to the SP 500 cash index. SSO is a symbol for a proshare that tracts the same. SP futures have 20x leverage and SSO have 2x leverage. We are now trading March 09.

I hate when I miss a big move by a few points (over 100 points), but thats the game. I can't jump on and off and change my orders on a blog like this it would get to crazy.

Interest rates are wonderful!

Mortgages are doing better and Rates are dropping and real estate is going to pick up. We just need the loans to get funded. It is still hard on jumbo's and requirements are very hard. The Banks are still not parting with e money. JP Morgan Chase claims they are, but they are putting the money in many instruments. IF the fed put the money directly into Fannie and Freddie as I hoped and they now have proposed we will be good.

Our market In Bergen County has picked up again. My new homes are getting bids. That's a sign of progress.

The real estate market in Northern Bergen is picking up at low tick prices.

Mortgages! Mortgages! Rates! Rates! = Real Estate Sales!

Richard

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